Research

Abstract: This paper tests the hypothesis that economic conditions at critical junctures in history exert distinct long-run effects on political institutions. I find that nations experiencing favorable rainfall immediately after independence — a formative period for institutional development — swiftly become more autocratic and are 26 percent more likely to be autocracies half a century later. Climate windfalls before or after this window, by contrast, have no persistent effect on regime type. Both econometric and case study evidence suggest that windfalls at the post-independence juncture increase resources available to incumbent leaders when the cost of reshaping institutions is particularly low. Evidence from Indian districts and African ethnic groups corroborates the main findings, with long-run political capture by family dynasties serving as a subnational analogue of autocratic rule. Overall these results suggest that favorable economic conditions in times of institutional transition may have the unintended consequence of undermining democracy.

Abstract: We estimate the impacts of large-scale unconditional cash transfers on child survival. One-time transfers of USD 1000 were provided to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in Kenya. We collected census data on over 100,000 births, including on mortality and cause of death, and detailed data on health behaviors. Unconditional cash transfers (accounting for spillovers) lead to 48% fewer infant deaths before age one and 45% fewer child deaths before age five. These improvements appear to arise from better maternal health and nutrition, a 53% reduction in labor supply around the time of childbirth, and a 45% increase in hospital delivery. There is a transient 10% increase in fertility, but mortality reductions are largest in households receiving transfers after pregnancies began, ruling out selection bias. Mortality effects dissipate rapidly when cash is distributed more than three months from the birth. Mortality reductions are concentrated among households with limited (monetary) consumption gains, suggesting a trade-off between financial and health investments.

Abstract: Published estimates of 2050 food demand exhibit an enormous range of values. This paper projects a 50–60 percent increase in total global food demand between 2019 and 2050. Our analysis indicates a substantial slowing of rice demand, a growing share of palm oil in world fats and oils markets, and a continued shift to poultry as the dominant form of meat consumption. In contrast to most existing food models, we integrate fish consumption into the analysis of vegetable and animal protein and highlight the dangers of using commonly cited feed ratios for projecting feed grain demand. More broadly, we demonstrate the value of a commodity by region approach for understanding complexities in the world food system.